131 lines
6.5 KiB
Markdown
131 lines
6.5 KiB
Markdown
---
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created_at: '2015-04-05T23:06:22.000Z'
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title: What happened to the laptop computer? (1985)
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url: http://www.nytimes.com/1985/12/08/business/the-executive-computer.html
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author: denzil_correa
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points: 147
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story_text:
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comment_text:
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num_comments: 86
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story_id:
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story_title:
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story_url:
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parent_id:
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created_at_i: 1428275182
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_tags:
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- story
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- author_denzil_correa
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- story_9325637
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objectID: '9325637'
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---
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WHATEVER happened to the laptop computer? Two years ago, on my flight to
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Las Vegas for Comdex, the annual microcomputer trade show, every second
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or third passenger pulled out a portable, ostensibly to work, but more
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likely to demonstrate an ability to keep up with the latest fad. Last
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year, only a couple of these computers could be seen on the fold-down
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trays. This year, every one of them had been replaced by the more
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traditional mixed drink or beer.
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Was the laptop dream an illusion, then? Or was the problem merely that
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the right combination of features for such lightweight computers had not
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yet materialized? The answer probably is a combination of both views.
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For the most part, the portable computer is a dream machine for the few.
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The limitations come from what people actually do with computers, as
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opposed to what the marketers expect them to do. On the whole, people
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don't want to lug a computer with them to the beach or on a train to
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while away hours they would rather spend reading the sports or business
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section of the newspaper. Somehow, the microcomputer industry has
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assumed that everyone would love to have a keyboard grafted on as an
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extension of their fingers. It just is not so.
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The proponents of portables stoutly maintain that the stumbling block to
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a computer in every attache case is price. Right now, a laptop computer
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costs considerably more than the equivalent desktop version.
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Yes, there are a lot of people who would like to be able to work on a
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computer at home. But would they really want to carry one back from the
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office with them? It would be much simpler to take home a few floppy
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disks tucked into an attache case. For the majority of consumers, a
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second computer for the home office is usually an inexpensive clone of
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the one at work. Not only is such an alternative more convenient, but it
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is more cost effective as well. In fact, one ends up with better
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technology.
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Consumers have passed judgment. Convergent Technology allowed its laptop
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to sink into oblivion in June of this year. I.B.M. never legitimized the
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market with its much rumored ''Clamshell,'' probably because the company
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realized that laptops are a small niche market, not a mass market.
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Hewlett-Packard, Panasonic, Data General and, of course, Tandy, which
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started it all, are still producing their laptops, albeit with the
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almost unreadable liquid crystal display, or L.C.D. Sales, however, are
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a fraction of the optimistic projections made only a year ago by
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industry soothsayers.
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One key to greater consumer acceptance is better display. It is is
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available in the Gridcase laptop (from the Grid Systems Corporation,
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Mountain View, Calif., 415-961-4800), which offers a gas-plasma display
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quite different from - and in some ways better than - the standard
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cathode-ray tube display. The display does much to make the Gridcase the
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only battery-powered laptop currently worth considering. But it costs
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$4,350, without the recommended maintenance contract and the requisite
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software, which together easily bring the total price up to $6,000 to
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$7,000, or even more.
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Software is the real weak spot for laptops. If the machines were merely
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too expensive, especially in view of their limited display, they would
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still sell if they served an unbeatable function. But for that to be the
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case, special software would be needed. The word processing and
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spreadsheet packages commonly available for them are intended to
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accomplish tasks to which laptop computers are simply not well suited.
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Where these machines could shine is in such specialized field
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applications as those required by the military, the Internal Revenue
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Service, accountants and sales representatives. The largest of these
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markets is probably sales, and special software to meet the needs of
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sales representatives is beginning to dribble into the marketplace.
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One firm that has established itself in this area is Sales Technologies,
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of Atlanta (404-239-0799). Founded in 1983 by two former Procter &
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Gamble employees and an M.I.T. computer whiz, the company produces a
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series of sales-oriented software programs for laptop computers. These
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include an order-entry system, an expense tracker, electronic mail, data
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communications and a territory management program, which permits a
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traveling sales representative to update customer files and the home
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office's computer data base. TO outfit one sales representative with
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this software and a Gridcase computer on which to run it -would cost
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$5,000 to $7,000, depending on the package. (The two companies are not
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affiliated, although Grid does package Sales Technologies software with
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its computers.) For a concern with a sales force of 500 people, the type
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of company for which such packages are geared, the expense would not be
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slight. The benefits presumably would come from increased sales by a
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more efficient sales force.
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Fred Burke, a spokesman for Sales Technologies, cites the case of a
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large apparel maker. The company routinely was unable to fill 13 percent
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of its orders because many of the products were out of stock by the time
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orders came in from the road. Once they were equipped with laptop
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computers, sales representatives were linked to the main office and were
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able to convert many ''lost'' orders into sales.
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By being able to determine immediately that, say, a particular green
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shirt was sold out, they could push the green-striped ones instead. The
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recouped business paid for the apparel company's laptop system in less
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than six months.
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Sales representatives, service managers, field auditors of all varieties
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have not been adequately served by the computer industry in pushing
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laptop computers. As the technology of these machines, particularly of
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their displays, improves, and as their price declines, a lot of
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briefcase computers will probably be sold. And as the software that is
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capable of turning them into true satellite offices becomes refined,
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they will probably even be used - in fact, profitably so.
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But the real future of the laptop computer will remain in the
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specialized niche markets. Because no matter how inexpensive the
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machines become, and no matter how sophisticated their software, I still
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can't imagine the average user taking one along when going fishing.
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Drawing
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