412 lines
23 KiB
Markdown
412 lines
23 KiB
Markdown
---
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created_at: '2009-02-17T18:12:54.000Z'
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title: The Futile Pursuit of Happiness (2003)
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url: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0DEFD61538F934A3575AC0A9659C8B63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all
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author: kirse
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points: 52
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story_text: |-
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The tinyurl goes to this article:
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http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0DEFD61538F934A3575AC0A9659C8B63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all<p>HN was bouncing me to some old NYTimes submission when trying to post that original link.
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comment_text:
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num_comments: 19
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story_id:
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story_title:
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story_url:
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parent_id:
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created_at_i: 1234894374
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_tags:
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- story
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- author_kirse
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- story_484779
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objectID: '484779'
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year: 2003
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---
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''The average person says, 'I know I'll be happier with a Porsche than a
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Chevy,' '' Gilbert explains. '' 'Or with Linda rather than Rosalyn. Or
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as a doctor rather than as a plumber.' That seems very clear to people.
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The problem is, I can't get into medical school or afford the Porsche.
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So for the average person, the obstacle between them and happiness is
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actually getting the futures that they desire. But what our research
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shows -- not just ours, but Loewenstein's and Kahneman's -- is that the
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real problem is figuring out which of those futures is going to have the
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high payoff and is really going to make you happy.
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''You know, the Stones said, 'You can't always get what you want,' ''
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Gilbert adds. ''I don't think that's the problem. The problem is you
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can't always know what you want.''
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gilbert's papers on affective forecasting began to appear in the late
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1990's, but the idea to study happiness and emotional prediction
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actually came to him on a sunny afternoon in October 1992, just as he
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and his friend Jonathan Jay Koehler sat down for lunch outside the
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psychology building at the University of Texas at Austin, where both men
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were teaching at the time. Gilbert was uninspired about his studies and
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says he felt despair about his failing marriage. And as he launched into
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a discussion of his personal life, he swerved to ask why economists
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focus on the financial aspects of decision making rather than the
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emotional ones. Koehler recalls, ''Gilbert said something like: 'It all
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seems so small. It isn't really about money; it's about happiness. Isn't
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that what everybody wants to know when we make a decision?' '' For a
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moment, Gilbert forgot his troubles, and two more questions came to him.
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Do we even know what makes us happy? And if it's difficult to figure out
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what makes us happy in the moment, how can we predict what will make us
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happy in the future?
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In the early 1990's, for an up-and-coming psychology professor like
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Gilbert to switch his field of inquiry from how we perceive one another
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to happiness, as he did that day, was just a hairsbreadth short of
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bizarre. But Gilbert has always liked questions that lead him somewhere
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new. Now 45, Gilbert dropped out of high school at 15, hooking into what
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he calls ''the tail end of the hippie movement'' and hitchhiking
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aimlessly from town to town with his guitar. He met his wife on the
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road; she was hitching in the other direction. They married at 17, had a
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son at 18 and settled down in Denver. ''I pulled weeds, I sold rebar, I
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sold carpet, I installed carpet, I spent a lot of time as a phone
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solicitor,'' he recalls. During this period he spent several years
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turning out science-fiction stories for magazines like Amazing Stories.
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Thus, in addition to being ''one of the most gifted social psychologists
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of our age,'' as the psychology writer and professor David G. Myers
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describes him to me, Gilbert is the author of ''The Essence of Grunk,''
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a story about an encounter with a creature made of egg salad that jets
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around the galaxy in a rocket-powered refrigerator.
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Psychology was a matter of happenstance. In the midst of his sci-fi
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career, Gilbert tried to sign up for a writing course at the local
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community college, but the class was full; he figured that psych, still
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accepting registrants, would help him with character development in his
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fiction. It led instead to an undergraduate degree at the University of
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Colorado at Denver, then a Ph.D. at Princeton, then an appointment at
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the University of Texas, then the appointment at Harvard. ''People ask
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why I study happiness,'' Gilbert says, ''and I say, 'Why study anything
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else?' It's the holy grail. We're studying the thing that all human
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action is directed toward.''
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One experiment of Gilbert's had students in a photography class at
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Harvard choose two favorite pictures from among those they had just
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taken and then relinquish one to the teacher. Some students were told
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their choices were permanent; others were told they could exchange their
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prints after several days. As it turned out, those who had time to
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change their minds were less pleased with their decisions than those
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whose choices were irrevocable.
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Much of Gilbert's research is in this vein. Another recent study asked
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whether transit riders in Boston who narrowly missed their trains
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experienced the self-blame that people tend to predict they'll feel in
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this situation. (They did not.) And a paper waiting to be published,
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''The Peculiar Longevity of Things Not So Bad,'' examines why we expect
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that bigger problems will always dwarf minor annoyances. ''When really
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bad things happen to us, we defend against them,'' Gilbert explains.
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''People, of course, predict the exact opposite. If you ask, 'What would
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you rather have, a broken leg or a trick knee?' they'd probably say,
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'Trick knee.' And yet, if your goal is to accumulate maximum happiness
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over your lifetime, you just made the wrong choice. A trick knee is a
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bad thing to have.''
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Advertisement
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[Continue reading the main story](#story-continues-4)
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All of these studies establish the links between prediction, decision
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making and well-being. The photography experiment challenges our common
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assumption that we would be happier with the option to change our minds
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when in fact we're happier with closure. The transit experiment
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demonstrates that we tend to err in estimating our regret over missed
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opportunities. The ''things not so bad'' work shows our failure to
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imagine how grievously irritations compromise our satisfaction. Our
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emotional defenses snap into action when it comes to a divorce or a
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disease but not for lesser problems. We fix the leaky roof on our house,
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but over the long haul, the broken screen door we never mend adds up to
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more frustration.
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Gilbert does not believe all forecasting mistakes lead to similar
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results; a death in the family, a new gym membership and a new husband
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are not the same, but in how they affect our well-being they are
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similar. ''Our research simply says that whether it's the thing that
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matters or the thing that doesn't, both of them matter less than you
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think they will,'' he says. ''Things that happen to you or that you buy
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or own -- as much as you think they make a difference to your happiness,
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you're wrong by a certain amount. You're overestimating how much of a
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difference they make. None of them make the difference you think. And
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that's true of positive and negative events.''
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Much of the work of Kahneman, Loewenstein, Gilbert and Wilson takes its
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cue from the concept of adaptation, a term psychologists have used since
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at least the 1950's to refer to how we acclimate to changing
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circumstances. George Loewenstein sums up this human capacity as
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follows: ''Happiness is a signal that our brains use to motivate us to
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do certain things. And in the same way that our eye adapts to different
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levels of illumination, we're designed to kind of go back to the
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happiness set point. Our brains are not trying to be happy. Our brains
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are trying to regulate us.'' In this respect, the tendency toward
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adaptation suggests why the impact bias is so pervasive. As Tim Wilson
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says: ''We don't realize how quickly we will adapt to a pleasurable
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event and make it the backdrop of our lives. When any event occurs to
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us, we make it ordinary. And through becoming ordinary, we lose our
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pleasure.''
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It is easy to overlook something new and crucial in what Wilson is
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saying. Not that we invariably lose interest in bright and shiny things
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over time -- this is a long-known trait -- but that we're generally
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unable to recognize that we adapt to new circumstances and therefore
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fail to incorporate this fact into our decisions. So, yes, we will adapt
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to the BMW and the plasma TV, since we adapt to virtually everything.
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But Wilson and Gilbert and others have shown that we seem unable to
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predict that we will adapt. Thus, when we find the pleasure derived from
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a thing diminishing, we move on to the next thing or event and almost
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certainly make another error of prediction, and then another, ad
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infinitum.
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As Gilbert points out, this glitch is also significant when it comes to
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negative events like losing a job or the death of someone we love, in
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response to which we project a permanently inconsolable future. ''The
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thing I'm most interested in, that I've spent the most time studying, is
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our failure to recognize how powerful psychological defenses are once
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they're activated,'' Gilbert says. ''We've used the metaphor of the
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'psychological immune system' -- it's just a metaphor, but not a bad one
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for that system of defenses that helps you feel better when bad things
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happen. Observers of the human condition since Aristotle have known that
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people have these defenses. Freud spent his life, and his daughter Anna
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spent her life, worrying about these defenses. What's surprising is that
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people don't seem to recognize that they have these defenses, and that
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these defenses will be triggered by negative events.'' During the course
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of my interviews with Gilbert, a close friend of his died. ''I am like
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everyone in thinking, I'll never get over this and life will never be
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good again,'' he wrote to me in an e-mail message as he planned a trip
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to Texas for the funeral. ''But because of my work, there is always a
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voice in the back of my head -- a voice that wears a lab coat and has a
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lot of data tucked under its arm -- that says, 'Yes, you will, and yes,
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it will.' And I know that voice is right.''
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Still, the argument that we imperfectly imagine what we want and how we
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will cope is nevertheless disorienting. On the one hand, it can cast a
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shadow of regret on some life decisions. Why did I decide that working
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100 hours a week to earn more would make me happy? Why did I think
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retiring to Sun City, Ariz., would please me? On the other hand, it can
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be enlightening. No wonder this teak patio set hasn't made me as happy
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as I expected. Even if she dumps me, I'll be O.K. Either way, predicting
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how things will feel to us over the long term is mystifying. A large
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body of research on well-being seems to suggest that wealth above
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middle-class comfort makes little difference to our happiness, for
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example, or that having children does nothing to improve well-being --
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even as it drives marital satisfaction dramatically down. We often yearn
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for a roomy, isolated home (a thing we easily adapt to), when, in fact,
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it will probably compromise our happiness by distancing us from
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neighbors. (Social interaction and friendships have been shown to give
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lasting pleasure.) The big isolated home is what Loewenstein, 48,
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himself bought. ''I fell into a trap I never should have fallen into,''
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he told me.
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Loewenstein's office is up a narrow stairway in a hidden corner of an
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enormous, worn brick building on the edge of the Carnegie-Mellon campus
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in Pittsburgh. He and Gilbert make for an interesting contrast. Gilbert
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is garrulous, theatrical, dazzling in his speech and writing; he fills a
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room. Loewenstein is soft-spoken, given to abstraction and lithe in the
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way of a hard-core athlete; he seems to float around a room. Both men
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profess tremendous admiration for the other, and their different
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disciplines -- psychology and economics -- have made their overlapping
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interests in affective forecasting more complementary than fraught.
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While Gilbert's most notable contribution to affective forecasting is
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the impact bias, Loewenstein's is something called the ''empathy gap.''
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Here's how it expresses itself. In a recent experiment, Loewenstein
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tried to find out how likely people might be to dance alone to Rick
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James's ''Super Freak'' in front of a large audience. Many agreed to do
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so for a certain amount of money a week in advance, only to renege when
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the day came to take the stage. This sounds like a goof, but it gets at
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the fundamental difference between how we behave in ''hot'' states
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(those of anxiety, courage, fear, drug craving, sexual excitation and
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the like) and ''cold'' states of rational calm. This empathy gap in
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thought and behavior -- we cannot seem to predict how we will behave in
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a hot state when we are in a cold state -- affects happiness in an
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important but somewhat less consistent way than the impact bias. ''So
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much of our lives involves making decisions that have consequences for
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the future,'' Loewenstein says. ''And if our decision making is
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influenced by these transient emotional and psychological states, then
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we know we're not making decisions with an eye toward future
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consequences.'' This may be as simple as an unfortunate proclamation of
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love in a moment of lust, Loewenstein explains, or something darker,
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like an act of road rage or of suicide.
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Among other things, this line of inquiry has led Loewenstein to
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collaborate with health experts looking into why people engage in
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unprotected sex when they would never agree to do so in moments of cool
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calculation. Data from tests in which volunteers are asked how they
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would behave in various ''heat of the moment'' situations -- whether
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they would have sex with a minor, for instance, or act forcefully with a
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partner who asks them to stop -- have consistently shown that different
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states of arousal can alter answers by astonishing margins. ''These
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kinds of states have the ability to change us so profoundly that we're
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more different from ourselves in different states than we are from
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another person,'' Loewenstein says.
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Advertisement
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[Continue reading the main story](#story-continues-5)
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Part of Loewenstein's curiosity about hot and cold states comes from
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situations in which his emotions have been pitted against his intellect.
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When he's not teaching, he treks around the world, making sure to get to
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Alaska to hike or kayak at least once a year. A scholar of
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mountaineering literature, he once wrote a paper that examined why
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climbers have a poor memory for pain and usually ignore turn-back times
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at great peril. But he has done the same thing himself many times. He
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almost died in a whitewater canoeing accident and vowed afterward that
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he never wanted to see his runaway canoe again. (A couple of hours
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later, he went looking for it.) The same goes for his climbing pursuits.
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''You establish your turn-back time, and then you find yourself still
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far from the peak,'' he says. ''So you push on. You haven't brought
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enough food or clothes, and then as a result, you're stuck at 13,000
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feet, and you have to just sit there and shiver all night without a
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sleeping bag or warm clothes. When the sun comes up, you're half-frozen,
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and you say, 'Never again.' Then you get back and immediately start
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craving getting out again.'' He pushes the point: ''I have tried to
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train my emotions.'' But he admits that he may make the same mistakes on
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his next trip.
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Would a world without forecasting errors be a better world? Would a life
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lived without forecasting errors be a richer life? Among the academics
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who study affective forecasting, there seems little doubt that these
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sorts of questions will ultimately jump from the academy to the real
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world. ''If people do not know what is going to make them better off or
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give them pleasure,'' Daniel Kahneman says, ''then the idea that you can
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trust people to do what will give them pleasure becomes questionable.''
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To Kahneman, who did some of the first experiments in the area in the
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early 1990's, affective forecasting could greatly influence retirement
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planning, for example, where mistakes in prediction (how much we save,
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how much we spend, how we choose a community we think we'll enjoy) can
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prove irreversible. He sees a role for affective forecasting in consumer
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spending, where a ''cooling off'' period might remedy buyer's remorse.
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Most important, he sees vital applications in health care, especially
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when it comes to informed consent. ''We consider people capable of
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giving informed consent once they are told of the objective effects of a
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treatment,'' Kahneman says. ''But can people anticipate how they and
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other people will react to a colostomy or to the removal of their vocal
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cords? The research on affective forecasting suggests that people may
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have little ability to anticipate their adaptation beyond the early
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stages.'' Loewenstein, along with his collaborator Dr. Peter Ubel, has
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done a great deal of work showing that nonpatients overestimate the
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displeasure of living with the loss of a limb, for instance, or
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paraplegia. To use affective forecasting to prove that people adapt to
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serious physical challenges far better and will be happier than they
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imagine, Loewenstein says, could prove invaluable.
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There are downsides to making public policy in light of this research,
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too. While walking in Pittsburgh one afternoon, Loewenstein tells me
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that he doesn't see how anybody could study happiness and not find
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himself leaning left politically; the data make it all too clear that
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boosting the living standards of those already comfortable, such as
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through lower taxes, does little to improve their levels of well-being,
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whereas raising the living standards of the impoverished makes an
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enormous difference. Nevertheless, he and Gilbert (who once declared in
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an academic paper, ''Windfalls are better than pratfalls, A's are better
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than C's, December 25 is better than April 15, and everything is better
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than a Republican administration'') seem to lean libertarian in regard
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to pushing any kind of prescriptive agenda. ''We're very, very nervous
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about overapplying the research,'' Loewenstein says. ''Just because we
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figure out that X makes people happy and they're choosing Y, we don't
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want to impose X on them. I have a discomfort with paternalism and with
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using the results coming out of our field to impose decisions on
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people.''
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Still, Gilbert and Loewenstein can't contain the personal and
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philosophical questions raised by their work. After talking with both
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men, I found it hard not to wonder about my own predictions at every
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turn. At times it seemed like knowing the secret to some parlor trick
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that was nonetheless very difficult to pull off -- when I ogled a new
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car at the Honda dealership as I waited for a new muffler on my '92
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Accord, for instance, or as my daughter's fever spiked one evening and I
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imagined something terrible, and then something more terrible
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thereafter. With some difficulty, I could observe my mind overshooting
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the mark, zooming past accuracy toward the sublime or the tragic. It was
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tempting to want to try to think about the future more moderately. But
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it seemed nearly impossible as well.
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To Loewenstein, who is especially attendant to the friction between his
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emotional and deliberative processes, a life without forecasting errors
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would most likely be a better, happier life. ''If you had a deep
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understanding of the impact bias and you acted on it, which is not
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always that easy to do, you would tend to invest your resources in the
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things that would make you happy,'' he says. This might mean taking more
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time with friends instead of more time for making money. He also adds
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that a better understanding of the empathy gap -- those hot and cold
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states we all find ourselves in on frequent occasions -- could save
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people from making regrettable decisions in moments of courage or
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craving.
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Gilbert seems optimistic about using the work in terms of improving
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''institutional judgment'' -- how we spend health care dollars, for
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example -- but less sanguine about using it to improve our personal
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judgment. He admits that he has taken some of his research to heart; for
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instance, his work on what he calls the psychological immune system has
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led him to believe that he would be able to adapt to even the worst turn
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of events. In addition, he says that he now takes more chances in life,
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a fact corroborated in at least one aspect by his research partner Tim
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Wilson, who says that driving with Gilbert in Boston is a terrifying,
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white-knuckle experience. ''But I should have learned many more lessons
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from my research than I actually have,'' Gilbert admits. ''I'm getting
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married in the spring because this woman is going to make me happy
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forever, and I know it.'' At this, Gilbert laughs, a sudden, booming
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laugh that fills his Cambridge office. He seems to find it funny not
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because it's untrue, but because nothing could be more true. This is how
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he feels. ''I don't think I want to give up all these motivations,'' he
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says, ''that belief that there's the good and there's the bad and that
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this is a contest to try to get one and avoid the other. I don't think I
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want to learn too much from my research in that sense.''
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Even so, Gilbert is currently working on a complex experiment in which
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he has made affective forecasting errors ''go away.'' In this test,
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Gilbert's team asks members of Group A to estimate how they'll feel if
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they receive negative personality feedback. The impact bias kicks in, of
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course, and they mostly predict they'll feel terrible, when in fact they
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end up feeling O.K. But if Gilbert shows Group B that others have gotten
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the same feedback and felt O.K. afterward, then its members predict
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they'll feel O.K. as well. The impact bias disappears, and the
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participants in Group B make accurate predictions.
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This is exciting to Gilbert. But at the same time, it's not a technique
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he wants to shape into a self-help book, or one that he even imagines
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could be practically implemented. ''Hope and fear are enduring features
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of the human experience,'' he says, ''and it is unlikely that people are
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going to abandon them anytime soon just because some psychologist told
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them they should.'' In fact, in his recent writings, he has wondered
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whether forecasting errors might somehow serve a larger functional
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purpose he doesn't yet understand. If he could wave a wand tomorrow and
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eliminate all affective-forecasting errors, I ask, would he? ''The
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benefits of not making this error would seem to be that you get a little
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more happiness,'' he says. ''When choosing between two jobs, you
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wouldn't sweat as much because you'd say: 'You know, I'll be happy in
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both. I'll adapt to either circumstance pretty well, so there's no use
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in killing myself for the next week.' But maybe our caricatures of the
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future -- these overinflated assessments of how good or bad things will
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be -- maybe it's these illusory assessments that keep us moving in one
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direction over the other. Maybe we don't want a society of people who
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shrug and say, 'It won't really make a difference.'
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''Maybe it's important for there to be carrots and sticks in the world,
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even if they are illusions,'' he adds. ''They keep us moving towards
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carrots and away from sticks.''
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[Continue reading the main story](#whats-next)
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